Al-Qaeda is "less capable and effective" than it was a year ago after a series of damaging blows that have killed key leaders in Pakistan's tribal areas, the new US intelligence chief said.Nevertheless, retired admiral Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, said Al-Qaeda was still planning attacks on the West and is believed to view Europe as a "viable launching point."
In an annual threat assessment to Congress, Blair also highlighted growing Al-Qaeda threats in Yemen, East Africa and North Africa.
But in an allusion to US missile strikes this year in Pakistan's tribal areas, he said: "Al-Qaeda lost significant parts of its command structure since 2008 in a succession of blows as damaging to the group as any since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001.
Because of the pressure we and our allies have put on Al-Qaeda's core leadership in Pakistan and the continued decline of Al-Qaeda's most prominent regional affiliate in Iraq, Al-Qaeda today is less capable and effective than it was a year ago," he said.
He said the loss of key leaders in quick succession "has made it more difficult for Al-Qaeda to identify replacements, and in some cases the group has had to promote more junior figures considerably less skilled and respected than the individuals they are replacing."
The US missile strikes have aroused vehement opposition in Pakistan amid charges of civilian deaths and warnings by the government that the US campaign is "counter-productive."
And the report gave no indication that the cross-border campaign was helping to curb violence in either Afghanistan or Pakistan.
He said the loss of key leaders in quick succession "has made it more difficult for Al-Qaeda to identify replacements, and in some cases the group has had to promote more junior figures considerably less skilled and respected than the individuals they are replacing."
The US missile strikes have aroused vehement opposition in Pakistan amid charges of civilian deaths and warnings by the government that the US campaign is "counter-productive."
And the report gave no indication that the cross-border campaign was helping to curb violence in either Afghanistan or Pakistan.
On the contrary, it said the Taliban-dominated insurgency in Afghanistan has expanded in geographic scope and aggressiveness, moving into previously peaceful areas around Kabul and challenging the central government.
In Pakistan, the government was "losing authority in parts of the North-West Frontier Province and has less control of its semi-autonomous tribal areas."
Blair's report, however, said that sustained pressure on Al-Qaeda in the tribal areas "has the potential to further degrade its organizational cohesion and diminish the threat it poses.
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If forced to leave the safe havens, Al-Qaeda would have to adopt a more dispersed, clandestine structure that would make training and operational coordination more difficult, it said.
"It is conceivable Al-Qaeda could relocate elsewhere in South Asia, the Gulf, or parts of Africa where it could exploit a weak central government and close proximity to established recruitment, fundraising, and facilitation networks," the report said.
If forced to leave the safe havens, Al-Qaeda would have to adopt a more dispersed, clandestine structure that would make training and operational coordination more difficult, it said.
"It is conceivable Al-Qaeda could relocate elsewhere in South Asia, the Gulf, or parts of Africa where it could exploit a weak central government and close proximity to established recruitment, fundraising, and facilitation networks," the report said.
"But we judge none of these locations would be as conducive to their operational needs as their location in the FATA (federally administered tribal areas)," it said.
At the same time, however, Blair noted Al-Qaeda threats arising in other areas.
Yemen is reemerging as a jihadist battleground and potential regional base of operations for Al-Qaeda to plan internal and external attacks, train terrorists, and facilitate the movement of operatives," his assessment said.
Saudi Arabia, which has dealt harshly with the group since 2003, "is now facing new external threats from Al-Qaeda elements in the region, particularly from Yemen," he said.
Despite the death or capture of most Saudi-based Al-Qaeda leaders or operatives over the past five years, senior Al-Qaeda leaders view the oil-rich kingdom as a strategic target and they remain intent on resurrecting an operational presence there.
The report also noted the threat posed by Al-Qaeda and other Sunni affiliates returning to Europe from training in Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia, which has dealt harshly with the group since 2003, "is now facing new external threats from Al-Qaeda elements in the region, particularly from Yemen," he said.
Despite the death or capture of most Saudi-based Al-Qaeda leaders or operatives over the past five years, senior Al-Qaeda leaders view the oil-rich kingdom as a strategic target and they remain intent on resurrecting an operational presence there.
The report also noted the threat posed by Al-Qaeda and other Sunni affiliates returning to Europe from training in Pakistan.
"We have had limited visibility into European plotting, but we assess that Al-Qaeda is continuing to plan attacks in Europe and the West," it said.
"Al-Qaeda has used Europe as a launching point for external operations against the homeland on several occasions since 9/11, and we believe the group continues to view Europe as a viable launching point," it said.
It said Denmark and Britain remain "viable targets" of Al-Qaeda attacks, and France has been prominently mentioned by Al-Qaeda leaders, making it a possible target in reprisal for a 2004 ban on headscarves.
"Increased security measures at home and abroad have caused Al-Qaeda to view the West, especially the United States, as a harder target than in the past, but we remain concerned about an influx of Western recruits into the tribal areas since mid-2006," it said.
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